Premier League betting tips for 2016-17
With the Premier League being beamed around the globe every week, and each of the 20 teams playing 38 matches each, it is easy to see why football betting is so popular the world over. There are a myriad of betting markets and bet types to choose from, which can seem daunting at first. But once you learn the basics betting on the Premier League is an incredibly enjoyable and fruitful endeavor.
Betting on Individual Matches
Perhaps the most popular bet is betting on individual Premier League matches. Unless you’re betting larger sums of money, betting on a single Premier League game won’t yield a lot of profit, but by making smart bets you can have a relatively constant stream of small winnings.
Home teams tend to be substantial favorites such is the advantage of playing a football match at your own ground. Depending on the competing teams, the home team will almost always be odds-on, meaning the returns on your bets are smaller.
It is important to look at each team’s current form when betting on individual matches, probably their past six games. It is also worth looking at previous meetings between the two sides. Some teams have so-called “bogey teams”, opponents they perform poorly against. For example, Romelu Lukaku has scored eight goals in as many games against West Ham United.
Speaking of goal scorers, this is another popular market. You can usually bet on who will score first or whether a player will score during the game. Check if a striker is in top form, or enjoys playing against a certain side (here’s looking at you, Lukaku), as players tend to go on scoring runs.
Games are often settled by a single goal, especially if both teams are evenly matched. It’s not unusual for games to be settled by a set piece – corner or free kick. In this instance, look for the dominating central defenders to score. The odds for a center back to score are usually quite long, but can return wonderful margins.
Look for teams with quick wingers and forward playing against less mobile defenders. Arsenal’s Theo Walcott and Manchester United’s Marcus Rashford are blessed with blistering pace, which terrifies tired and more cumbersome central defenders. These kind of matchups are key to winning in the goals market.
When to make a parlay bet
Parlay bets can see you win massive sums of money for relatively small investments, but hitting them can be difficult, hence the longer odds. Parlays are when you choose two or more teams or outcomes and need each to win in order to win your bet.
Most European sports betting sites call parlays “accumulator” bets. The odds of the bet increase with the more bets you place. American betting sites tend to do away with increasing odds and simply offer set prices for two-team, three-team, four-team parlays.
The best time to make a parlay bet is when you see several teams you think are certain to win. You may see four or five high-flying teams playing at home against lesser opposition. This is the perfect time to make a parlay bet and turn your small wager into a princely sum.
Remember, you need all of your selections to win in order to cash a parlay bet. If only one result doesn’t go your way, your entire bet loses. Parlays can pay big rewards, but the likelihood of winning one is vastly lower than betting on individual games.
Betting on the favorite or underdog?
Favorites in Premier League games tend to be priced short, which is why many bettors put the favorites into a parlay bet. Betting on the favorite is a tactic employed by thousands of football bettors week in, week out. But unless you are prepared to risk a significant amount of money, you are never going to win big.
I would stay clear of betting on the favorite when the odds are ridiculously short. For example, avoid backing Manchester City against Sunderland as the returns will be very low.
Betting on the underdog is a more risky strategy because the bookmaker does not think they will win the match. However, bookmakers often give favorites too much credit.
West Ham United may be favorites in a game at home to Crystal Palace, with Palace’s odds being +500 (6.00 or 5/1). You may think Palace will win this encounter more than once every five games. If your research backs this up, betting on the underdog can be a good idea. Just be careful with how much and how often you back underdogs.
Making Futures Bets
As the name implies, futures bets are bets you make on a selection that will not be settled for a while, often the end of the season. Who will win the Premier League is a future bet. Which teams will finish in the top four places which three will be relegated from the Premier League are also futures.
The most obvious time to make one of these bets is before the season starts. Everyone is on a level playing field, so the odds will be more favorable.
At the start of the 2016-17 Premier League season, Manchester City were the favorites to win the league at around +300 with Bovada. After winning their first six Premier League games, City’s odds shorted to around -150. They have since lost one, won one, and drawn three, resulting in their odds of winning the league going to +225.
It is worth betting on league title futures before a team hits an easier run of fixtures because the odds could fall dramatically if they pick up a lot of points from those games. Conversely, it can pay to wait if the side you are betting on has a tough run of games.
Sit down and look at a team’s overall schedule and predict how many points they will get overall. Will this total be enough to win the league? If so, plan on making a future bet. But look for the opportune moment to make the bet, particularly after a run of poor form.
The same runs true for the top goal scorer markets. The best time to make a futures bet here is before a ball has been kicked. The same top strikers tend to be among the top scorers every season, but if they hit a purple patch like Chelsea’s Diego Costa has of late, their odds of winning the Golden Boot massively shorten, leaving you with a bet yielding less value.
Sources: theguardian.com / skysports.com